A Quarter of the Season in, Which Quarter is Caleb In?

 We're at the (comically early) bye week! And seeing as the number one concern going into this season was how Caleb Williams could handle Ben Johnson's offense - ("can he play in structure? can he throw on time and, god willing, with anticipation instead of holding the ball and going into creation mode? can he stop taking so many goddamn sacks?"), let's go ahead and check on where Caleb's progress is at.

Serious question - how would you measure a QB's success in avoiding negative plays? "Look at the tape!" the tape says whatever you want it to, if ESPN is to be believed, and anybody who comes away with a different conclusion than Colin Cowherd is apparently a hopeless homer soaked in idiocy and Malört ("aren't those synonyms?" heh, good one).

How about we keep it simple — total number of sacks, divided by total number of attempted passing snaps (Sk/(ATT + Sk): 

2025 Sack Rate by QB (Through Week 4)

"Well, that's all well and good, bu— wait, is that showing Caleb is one spot away from a top-10 QB by sack rate?"

Yup

"But didn't Caleb take like, a crazy number of sacks last year?"

68 total sacks, my friend. 3rd-most ever.

History!

"Wasn't Caleb learning how to get the ball out before he got sacked one of the biggest stories of the season!? Of the franchise?"

Yup.

"Wait, we replaced 3 out of 5 offensive lineman, right? Could this just be a situation where he hasn't improved much, but instead just not getting pressured as much?"

Great point (I mean it isn't, it's a doofus point, but I'll humor it/you), let's go ahead and instead look at the rate he's turning pressures into sacks, or "Pressure to Sack Rate", which is the ratio of total sacks taken over total pressures:

Pressure to Sack Rate - 2025, Through Week 4

"Well I'm excited about that chart, because it seems like it's saying that Caleb's actually even better than the last one did, but also did you call me a—"

Absolutely! Caleb's currently 8th overall in the NFL at avoiding turning pressures into sacks! Comfortably a top 10 QB! 4 weeks into his second year!

"It's just that it seemed like you called me a doofus, and I wanted—"

And just a few months ago that was his biggest weakness. Instead, top-10. He's currently playing at a top-tier level specifically in the area that was his biggest weakness last season.

"...okay. I mean that is pretty great."

It is.

"I can't help but notice, that list of QBs in the top-10 of pressure-to-sack rate isn't all that impressive though? Bo Nix? Joe Flacco? Bryce Young?"

You got it. For every Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott on there, there's also a Tua or Bo Nix - a QB who quickly gets the ball out rather than hanging in to make the big throw. As impotent as your point about the lineman.

"what?" 

What you're looking for is a grouping of some kind - how can you tell you've got a Mahomes in the making, and not a Bryce Young? Let's add an axis to get rid of the noodle-armed, limp-wristed checkdowners of the world. Their intended air yards per each attempt weak. Limp.

"are you talking about a specific stat, or—"

Humiliating. Impotent. Unsatisfying.

"...?"

The answer is Intended Air Yards - how aggressive is a QB at throwing deep. It doesn't count yards after the catch, so no screens that get taken 50 yards, no pitches behind the line of scrimmage where a skill player does 99% of the work - just a simple how deep are you throwing on average. Let's put it up on the chart - average intended air yards vs pressure-to-sack rate (min 100 attempts), and see which quarter of the of the graph Caleb falls in:

"Well that's... rad"

Totally rad

"Wait, why a minimum of 100 attempts? Why not let more people in?"

Because if we don't keep the bar at a reasonable height, this happens.

"Oh my god JJ McCarthy is hilarious"

JJ McCarthy is hilarious.

"It seems like Caleb's playing... like a good quarterback?"

Any way you slice it, Caleb is playing well. Mitigating negative plays? He's avoiding sacks AND avoiding interceptions at a very high level:

He's playing at the coveted balance of throwing aggressively (high intended air yards - throwing deep) and keeping the ball safe (low interception %).

Yes, despite ranking 6th in pre-snap penalties this season (resulting in the offense constantly behind the down-and-distance), and a bottom-5 run game, and throwing constantly under obvious passing situations—

—Caleb is succeeding through 4 weeks under his 4th offensive coordinator in year 2.

"What... do I do? What does it mean?"

Take a moment to enjoy it. Because what it means is that this season, we're witnessing the ascent of a great quarterback.