Fuck You, Taking a Punter in the 4th Was Good Process

 At this point basically everyone on earth who cares about the Bears enough to know who Tory Taylor is is also mad about him.

"The Bears wasted a 4th round pick" is the rallying cry of basically everybody from reddit, to Forbes writing him off as "just another punter", to PFF giving our golden Aussie a bottom-6 grade for most of the season.

Even beloved BWF-endorsed stats warlock Jonathan Wood labeled him as a "massive bust":

And even conversations among the most deranged of Bears fans have resulted in messages like this:

Now, while I'm not gonna sit here and pretend like Tory Taylor's stats are lying and he actually is the secret best punter in NFL history, I am gonna comment on the pervasive talking point that taking a punter in the fourth round at all was an indefensible misuse of draft capital. Because it wasn't. It isn't. Taking a punter in the fourth round is a perfectly reasonable use of draft capital if he's a top tier punter. Tory's problem so far is that, through some combination of his play and the special teams of Hightower, he hasn't (and by the way, can we all agree that the lesson of this season is how much COACHING MATTERS TO BRING OUT ELITE TRAITS IN PLAYERS GUYS), but let me be clear: taking a great punter in the fourth round is a good use of draft capital.

"What kind of dipshit would claim that Tory Taylor is worth a fourth round pick? You must be some real idiot who knows nothing about punting, and maybe numbers at all"

Well let's put our differences aside and ask the definitive experts on punters about the 2024 draft class and OHWELLWOULDYOULOOKATTHAT

Yup, that's the definitive experts on punting, Puntalytics, noting that Tory Taylor is one of the best punting prospects we've ever seen, to the point that he's worthy of a 4th round pick. 

"Well who gives a shit what that one punting blog thinks, we all know a punter just isn't worth a fourth round draft pick. Come on man, use your head."

Good idea! Let's see if we can get an analytical basis for how much value a player offers, and see where they would go in the draft! Back to Puntalytics for EPA per punt of top-tier punters—

Sure looks like an analytical basis for player value to me! Look at it. Seriously! Take a moment. Your brain is trying to tell you something.

Well, first of all, even if a punter only touches the ball ~60 times a season, an EPA of ~0.2 for a top-tier punter is HUGE. Averaging 1/5 of a point every time you touch the ball is actually crazy.

This season, the top 3 punters all overaged 0.2 EPA/play or higher on punts. The average NFL team punts about 60 times a season (although the Browns punted a hilarious 91 times, heh heh choke you morally bankrupt simpletons), meaning a top~3 punter is earning you about 12 Expected Points Added over the course of a season. The difference between a bottom-5 punter and top-5 punter over the course of a season is nearly 18 expected points added.

Note - D'Andre Swift, in the best season of his career, earned an EPA of 15 this season:

Total.

The difference between the greatest D'Andre Swift has ever had to offer and a middle-of-the-pack RB is about 11 EPA:

If a running back is worth a fourth round pick, then so is a punter.

"Well I don't think a running back is worth even a fourth!"

Of course you don't, you're having a stroke, that smoky flavor you're getting isn't from the peat of the scotch, it's a sign you need medical intervention. Put down the blog.

"Wh- fl— flurble? grlf?"

Anyways, I get it - the day Tory Taylor was drafted in the fourth round, the expectations for him got notched up to "one of the greatest of all time or a disappointment", which is a crazy expectation to have. Still while I personally believe he can be an all-time great punter in time, (Matt Araiza is just now living up to the expectations set for him coming out of college), that's almost irrelevant to the real point - when you have a fourth round pick in your pocket and an elite punter on the board, you make the call.