Bear Weather Fans

 The time is now. We're in the window for a Super Bowl. It can happen. But if it's going to happen, we have to be ready now . And I'm afraid we're not. Why? First, let's talk about draft capital. Here's the total draft capital teams have had over the past 4 seasons: (Draft pick values based on Spielberger-Fitzgerald model) Yes, the Bears have had the third-most draft capital over the past four seasons of any team in the NFL. Why cut it off at 4? Because rookie contracts are 4 seasons. Drafted players within the last 4 seasons = on the cheap. We have players making a fraction of what they will once their rookie contract is up and their second contract comes due. That net difference between what the player is "worth" (aka, what they will be making on their second contract) and what they're currently being paid is what football nerds call "surplus value". So how much surplus do the Bears have? First, let's talk offense. Darnell Wright...

  The always-great Fitzgerald over at Over The Cap had a really great article on the success rates teams have on finding top players at each position using top-tier draft picks vs top-tier cap spending.  TL;DR - there are some positions that you can consistently expect to find a top player for readily available in free agency (for example, linebacker), and some for which you will never, ever find one available (IE-DL [abbreviations are fun! So are parentheticals!]). So which is which? So when we look at positions of need over the last two years (so ignoring QB and WR), we see that far and away defensive lineman are found in the draft - Edge players around 75% of the time, and interior defensive lineman like 90%. If you need them (we do) you draft them. On the other hand, the most freely available top players are in the positions of Center, Tight End , and Safety , and to a lesser extend LT. Alright, no need to spend draft capital there - they're easily available any free agenc...