We Are In the Window (that Poles is Trying to Close)
The time is now. We're in the window for a Super Bowl. It can happen. But if it's going to happen, we have to be ready now. And I'm afraid we're not.
Why? First, let's talk about draft capital.
Here's the total draft capital teams have had over the past 4 seasons:
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| (Draft pick values based on Spielberger-Fitzgerald model) |
Yes, the Bears have had the third-most draft capital over the past four seasons of any team in the NFL. Why cut it off at 4? Because rookie contracts are 4 seasons. Drafted players within the last 4 seasons = on the cheap. We have players making a fraction of what they will once their rookie contract is up and their second contract comes due. That net difference between what the player is "worth" (aka, what they will be making on their second contract) and what they're currently being paid is what football nerds call "surplus value". So how much surplus do the Bears have?
First, let's talk offense.
Darnell Wright's surplus isn't a mystery anymore: the answer is $20M.
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| Thanks, Over The Cap! |
Darnell Wright's making $10M this season and next. He will be making $30M a year when his rookie contract is up. Think about that for a second - Darnell Wright's surplus value this season is almost enough to pay another Darnell Wright. The man is saving us enough money to have a free NFL tackle (future hall of famer Joe Thuney makes $18M/year). And that's just Darnell. The rest of the offense?
Rome Odunze is making $6M annually, a modest contract for a depth receiver (modest by NFL standards, by real people standards if I got that much money I would buy out a four-minute ad on every platform in existence to flip everyone the middle finger). By #1 WR standards it's laughable. Jamar Chase and JSN are both making north of $40M/year on their second contracts.
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| Seriously, thanks OTC! You're the far superior cap space website! |
If you think Rome is in the conversation for that tier of receiver, we're sitting on a guy gifting the Bears $34M in surplus. DJ Moore is making about $30M a year going forward. You can interpolate to decide where on the DJ-to-Ja'Marr spectrum Rome lies, but either way, you're looking at around $24-34M in surplus value, which would buy you somewhere between a lightly used Chris Olave ($31M/year) to a Maxx Crosby ($35M/year).
If you think Luther Burden is somewhere in the DJ Moore tier of receivers worthy of $30M/year, then his paltry $3M/year is a 90% discount. Another $27M in surplus.
Colston Loveland is making just shy of $7M. If you think he's better than Cole Kmet (he is) then he's worth somewhere between $13-20M. Another ~$10M surplus.
Those are probably the only notable players on offense. Let's move on.
Oh, right, the glitzy gazelle. If our sashayer uses those painted nails to throw like a top-10 QB, then he's worth ~$55M. He's making $10M. A ridiculous $45M in surplus value.
With Caleb's surplus value alone, you could happily swing the contracts of Khalil Mack, Jadeveon Clowney, or Chase Young. Wait, did I say "or"? I meant "and". As in "combined". You could swing Mack ($18M) Clowney ($5M) and Young ($17M) and still have enough to pay Coby Bryant to spend the season in the hospital wing (I know I know too soon, I'm frustrated here, let me have this).
That's just Caleb's contract. When you add up the surplus value of all the notable rookies on the offense?
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| I know it's illegible. It's your fault for reading on a phone. You know who never read on a phone? Socrates. |
Yes, the current crop of Bears offensive rookies are effectively giving you enough surplus value to buy an entire defense.
And to be clear - this is underselling it. I haven't even mentioned our left tackle, where Braxton ($2M) and Ozzy ($1.8M) combine ($3.8) for a salary that wouldn't even place in the top 60 tackles in the NFL—
— or the fact that Kyle Monangai's near-criminal 7th round $1M cap hit means he's basically free. We are being GIFTED a great defense! We can spend big!
Wait, hold on, what was that?
Oh god, does that say we've got the third-highest cost on defense? Who're we even paying!?
Oh god. Oh - oh god. Wait, here, let's get an annotation with a current status update—
So for what should be the best players on the entire defense, the only two earning big money that aren't actively rehabbing from surgery are the linebacker who rehabbed a broken leg last season to rebound with all the speed and vision of Hellen Keller, and the defensive end we spent a 2nd round pick on just to also turn around and spend the most money of anyone on the team for (whose prime of his career can best be heralded as "a really good #2" [PFF didn't even rank him in the top 40 Edge defenders. There are only 32 teams!]).
I mean I guess with Montez, at least you got a starter? 2nd round picks are valuable, but it's not like that pick was going to bring you a defensive starter—
Oh god dammit.
Well maybe we had to stick with what we had on defense, it's not like top-tier defensive lineman are freely available in the offseason—
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| God. Dammit. |
So here we are - the Bears have the O-line of my daydreams, the skill players of my night-dreams, and the quarterback of my wet dreams. The Bears are absolutely poised to have the greatest offense of my entire life. We have a head coach who might actually kill Matt Lafleur, and that is not a metaphor.
...but we need a defense! And instead we have whatever this is—
We gave up the 3rd-most yards in the entire NFL last season! Why? Because we don't even have a real defensive line! And we're poised to be even more injured! Ryan Poles! I get you - GET US A REAL DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
Now isn't the time to be coy with resources. Our super bowl window is NOW, before the trade deadline. In two years, the $130M surplus will be over. This is our time, our window is open...
...if Ryan Poles doesn't shut it.
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